Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and their derivatives are both a cultural and financial phenomenon. The cryptos may be changing the face of money for all time. Or not. History alone will be the cryptos final judge and jury. In the meantime, in the real world of supply and demand at a price, Bitcoin has reached a reflection point. See below.
As I mentioned in our two posts prior posts Flash Crash and Bitcoin Fever the laws of social gravity have not been suspended for Bitcoin or any other new, new thing. Every fever breaks. That’s a reality. The action is Bitcoin is a marketplace reality come home to roost.
Again, I am not addressing the future of money or Bitcoin’s long-term viability. I am keen to stay laser-focused on the supply-demand relationship that exists in any free and open marketplace. The reality plays out this way. More sellers than buyers, the price goes down. More buyers than sellers the price goes up. Simple as that.
At the moment, Bitcoin has more sellers than buyers. Period.
Please note in the chart below, we warned about Bitcoin on October 24, 2021, with an October 23, 2021 chart in our post.
At Beyond the Hype, our Predictive Markets Model (PMM) works off a shared awareness signal (SAS) which indicated a $63,000 sell on October 23, 2021, and a $65,000 sell on November 11, 2021. We are not taking a bow, we are simply pointing out the supply-demand imbalance manifesting Bitcoin’s price decline picked up by our shared awareness signal in our model.
As a reminder, we intend to roll out our Predictive Markets Model (PMM) for Bitcoin and other trading and polling markets on March 17, 2022. Stay tuned.